No Ordinary Recession According to Joe Lavorgna

The Lowe's and Home Depot numbers this week are especially encouraging. Given that nobody is buying homes, malls are empty, everyone is unemployed and fully maxed out on their credit cards, it is nice to see that these companies are somehow still putting up the numbers.

I've been cautious since the Dow was at 7500, largely sitting on the sidelines. As I've watched the market surge and bears turn to bulls, I've started to wonder whether I too should change my approach and jump on board before the train leaves the station. It just seems that global markets are going to offer significant returns for the rest of the year as we pull out of this.

Joe Lavorgna, a frequent guest on CNBC's Kudlow and the Chief Economist and Deutsche Bank, offers a more balanced approach. As recently as yesterday, he appeared on CNBC observed that this is no ordinary recession and to call it over is entirely premature. Not only do we still have consumer credit issues to work through, but we still have to deal with commercial real estate problems on the horizon. Most importantly, according to Lavorgna, inventory levels are just too high across the board for a recovery to take hold.

As I start to dip my toes back into the stock market, I am bearing Lavorgna's caution in mind, and I would not be surprised to see this market take another dip.